96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.
Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.
F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS
it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Reader Comments
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Did you see the gopher in that shot. That was just too funny....LMAO
Been so busy lately. Will be very glad when move is over.
Thanks for the links Pat...Have gotten some great info from those links you post :)
See y'all later. Back to work.
SJ
97L is at 20N and 47W i hop this helps a little
97L doesn't exist, Taz. Read the Doc's 2:50 post.
As far as I can tell, the Navy's designation of 97L is a mistake. NHC is only issuing model runs for 96L, and these were updated at 9am EDT this morning. The 97L model runs posted on hardcoreweather.com are old, there is nothing in the Caribbean to worry about today.
Jeff Masters
So you don't have to search for it...hope this helps.
her
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261200Z SEP 06//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.0N 46.9W TO 24.0N 58.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 260600Z INDICATE THAT A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 47.0W IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 10 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, CANCELLED OR EXPIRE BY
271200Z.//
96L is gone and now it is 97L 97L is at 20N and 47W
96LINVEST.25kts-1011mb-214N-490W
97LINVEST.10kts-1009mb-200N-470W
now that they have diffent pics a coordinates up, for each, it is evident...new invest.
Taz wins the prize...
96L must of spawned
from the 8am
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20.5N49W. THIS LOW
CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR
SO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 24N
BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MT
Also 96L has current info up on it as 97L is just getting it's 1st passes in...they are very close to one another.
Think happy thoughts, you guys have Mario Williams!
I don't get bad feelings very often Jake....but when I do.....
now 96L
I'm sitting here thinking I should know who Mario Williams is.....Texan Rookie?
I don't get bad feelings very often Jake....but when I do.....
Mario Williams is who the Texans passed on Reggie Bush to pick...kinda funny that you don't know who he is! #1 pick in the draft!
I hope your bad feelings aren't as accurate as mine. If you recall my post from a few days back, I told you I promised my parents about 21 years ago that I would never evacuate again. But as Katrina entered the Gulf, I made my plan and brought them with me and my wife and kids. I too had a bad feeling.
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