96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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957. Tazmanian
4:38 AM PDT on September 27, 2006
96L is gone from the navy site whats see if they put it back up with TD 9? or put it back up 96L and 97L back to sleep
Member Since: Mei 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
956. ricderr
7:36 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
come on rand.......i know your answer..don't worry over a blob...don't get all excited..but at this time of year..you see a blob in the gulf like that...it could flare up like that...and bam....we've got trouble
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954. ricderr
7:33 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
off to grab some coffee..then i might need to get some buoy readings
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953. ricderr
7:31 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
well..good morning boys and girls....notice the blob south of texas......look familiar to anyone?
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952. Tazmanian
4:26 AM PDT on September 27, 2006
i would start keeping my eye on the new 1011mb low down 2mbs from 1013mb from be for
lol

this map will show you the 1011mb low and geting stonger
lol
Member Since: Mei 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
945. WPBHurricane05
6:51 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
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944. reelbull
6:01 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
Hey Paltrap....

I treated the personnel affected by that Delta explosion. Many were working the lauch near the flame trench....the buildings were inadequate protection...WW II concrete roofs; there was insufficient protable O2 to maintian breathing in the gas atmosphere, and limit any run like hell escape, and finally a looney 01 , butter bar lieutenant trying to tell old fart E6'd what to do....quite a cluster F....I believe I left Patrick AFB for a duty in the convergence zone (lousy sailing).and we (USAF) had 2 more lauch probems..late 90's...

so where do you access these science clips...I bet I could learn weather visually somewhere on this web..

Enjoy reading these posts now that I have RR here in Cocoa Beach....ps..those muscic links the other night were cool...even Led Zep..wow...
have a goood weather day,

Reel Bull>
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943. WPBHurricane05
6:12 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
let me try again

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942. WPBHurricane05
6:08 AM EDT on September 27, 2006


96L
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941. neutrino006
12:51 PM EEST on septembrie 27, 2006
Xangsane is INSANE! It boosted it's strength in very short time, and it is a MJOR storm even inland.... this is not an usual model (I think)
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939. hurricane23
3:55 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
Here are some models for Typhoon Xhangsane...

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938. hurricane23
3:43 AM EDT on September 27, 2006
Typhoon Xhangsane has really intensified and a very nice CDO has developed with a pressure of 927mb.

Winds are at 115kts...



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937. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:38 PM JST on September 27, 2006


Almost a Category four typhoon already..
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935. Skyepony (Mod)
5:00 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
The only other example I can think of is the physics of magnets to compare. It's linear. It's been more than 10year since I saw Calc or physics class, wish I could explain it better.

As for the disagreeances, wish they could come to a conclution...but you couldn't make one of those charts that would be 100% correct with what we understand about the cycles. There is too many variables that in themselves are suddenly not acting as we have known them too.
From hereA phenomenon operating at a much longer time scale (20 to 30 years), is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In this phenomenon, what “oscillates” is the strength and location of the surface low-pressure system south of the Aleutians.


Lately the anomilies in the PDO have been unexpected....NASA
“During the winters from 1999 through 2002 the North Pacific Ocean was subject to unusually or anomalously low sea level pressure in the Bering Sea and anomalously high sea level pressure north of Hawaii,” Bond said. Sea level pressure is the weight of the air pressing down at sea level, and is on average 14.7 pounds per square inch. “At the same time, a broad band of unusually warm water extended eastward from the coast of China and a band of unusually cold water curved from off the coast of the lower 48 to north of Japan,” he said.
MOre anomilies for 2004, I haven't seen any studies on '05 yet.

Back to magnetic forces... Check out the GRACE satallites sometime. They measure the gravity caused by the earth magnatism, which affects pressure & sea serface hieghts. The earth's magnetic field is doing funny things lately, many scientist agree we are going into a magnetic polar shift. Just too many varibles. Recon seems the only way to keep it straight & gives that referance point in wind to pressure where estimations can be better guestimated for a particular storm.
Member Since: Agustus 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39113
932. Wishcasterboy
4:55 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Ya I know it's a mouthful.
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931. Wishcasterboy
4:15 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Good evening! I see the south west Caribbean blob still lingers on. This kind of wave from the South American continent is something typical of a early or late season storms formation area. But my point is that this wave is in a bad spot. Water temperatures are slightly above average, but he's in the worst place a wave could be during a weak or strong El Nino. During the start of and El Nino event, the first places to feel it's effect in the Atlantic are usually the Caribbean and Bahamas Region. From my own opinion, and that of the National Hurricane Center, which barely makes any mention of it at all . I would say that the best case scenario for this wave is it moving west and hitting Central America no stronger than a depression or weak tropical storm. Keep in mind though, that ALL tropical systems need to be watched by people in areas that could be affected and even right now, as it stands, I see nothing that could make this wave anything more than a minor threat, that could easley change in the coming days.
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930. birdofpray
11:46 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
JUSTRICK...how are you tonight buddy?hear them buds kept you and Auburn up late last night...lol
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924. Skyepony (Mod)
3:32 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
MichaelSTL~ It's a linear equation. To put it roughly, simply & with the wrong equation. For every 35kts you increased the storms strength you would add another 8mb. I think I've seen the equation but I don't do alot of math for fun...Colby probibly knows it. Gradents are easier to come by when you have a strong High & strong low. The weaker the high, the low has to be stronger & then some to achieve the same reaction..

I've think I've seen it wrote & it worked out back there for Wilma...if you took the normal average difference of sea surface pressure between the 2 basins, the atlanic was, in 2005, at times, roughly 1/3 that difference more than the W. Pac normal...
Member Since: Agustus 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39113
922. BahaHurican
11:29 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
does anybody have any explanation as to why the pressure differences are inconsistent?
Michael,

For some reason I keep thinking about difference in size of ocean, but I don't know if this is what actually causes the difference.
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921. moonlightcowboy
3:47 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
L8R, Jake, that was too funny, enjoyed it. Have a good one.
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920. jake436
3:46 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
I'm out.
Member Since: Agustus 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
919. jake436
3:42 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: jus991 at 3:35 AM GMT on September 27, 2006.

isaac????!!!!...the BIG mystery!!!
lol


Isaac in 2000 was a fish flinger. In fact, the storms from that season were very similar to this season(other than the names, which were identical).
Member Since: Agustus 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
918. moonlightcowboy
3:41 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Jake, on that question, and your advice, I'll yield to the higher authorities...lol

(but, I really don't know)I think there was some speculation that the front would stall making things possibly more interesting.
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917. jake436
3:33 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Hey moonlightcowboy, back to your buoy topic. Just checked the buoys and the blob. Blob seems to have receded as far as it will tonight, and is holding its own now if not building convection. That being said, pressures are up at all nearby buoys. 42056 should be interesting to watch tomorrow, though. Does anybody know how far down that front is supposed to make it before stalling? That could move the blob before it has a chance to do anything. Or if timing was just right, it could steer it where it doesn't need to go.
Member Since: Agustus 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
916. jus991
3:34 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
isaac????!!!!...the BIG mystery!!!
lol
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915. Tazmanian
8:31 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
moonlightcowboy may be but well see
Member Since: Mei 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
914. Tazmanian
8:30 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
jake43 good ?
Member Since: Mei 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
913. moonlightcowboy
3:30 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
ROFLMAO...in the Caribbean maybe, Taz? or next to 96L, or 97L?
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911. Tazmanian
8:29 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
MichaelSTL there you are
Member Since: Mei 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
910. Tazmanian
8:28 PM PDT on September 26, 2006
: moonlightcowboy yes i think will see 98L in a few days but where
Member Since: Mei 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
909. jake436
3:27 AM GMT on September 27, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 3:27 AM GMT on September 27, 2006.

jake436 yes i can see


Where's your invest?
Member Since: Agustus 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 271
908. bibballen
10:25 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
'bout an hour old form NHC:

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE WEAKENED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.....tonight
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.