96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2006

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Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.

F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

Huge thunder head (wunderandrew)
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
Huge thunder head

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555. Patrap
9:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Public service announcement Jan 2004Link
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
554. Hellsniper223
9:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Uh oh... Things are getting hostile in here. Looks like its time for me to head out.

Bye Bye.
Member Since: Maret 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
553. jake436
9:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Yes, it is falling. It was lower yesterday than it is now, but it was low and rising. Today it has been high and falling for several hours, and there's the blob, which was not a concern yesterday when it was low and rising. There you have it, clear as mud.
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552. rwdobson
9:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
"actually the pressure is falling in that area"

not really. pressure was lower yesterday.
Member Since: Juni 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
550. rwdobson
9:45 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
"They say that with almost every storm that has formed at one point or another"

and wishcasters like you also say that every little blob of showers is going to develop. the overwhelming majority of them do not.
Member Since: Juni 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
549. StoryOfTheCane
5:46 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
sorry Scuba some of us dont read the entire days post before we mention something
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548. Hellsniper223
9:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Convection in the Carrib Blob is beginning to warm a bit...
Member Since: Maret 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
547. WPBHurricane05
5:44 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND THATS WHY NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED!!

gosh if i havent been saying that since i have gotten on here
Member Since: Juli 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
546. StoryOfTheCane
5:44 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
actually the pressure is falling in that area
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545. FloridaScuba
9:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
if i had a nickel for every blog post about the same thing i'd be a bazillionaire

:)
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544. CFLweather
9:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Oh no, not the tunnel drivel again.
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543. Thundercloud01221991
4:39 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
They say that with almost every storm that has formed at one point or another
Member Since: Agustus 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
542. StoryOfTheCane
5:41 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
if i had a nickel for every time an area of activity was NOT expected to develop id be a millionaire
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541. WPBHurricane05
5:42 PM EDT on September 26, 2006


Darth Vaders friend
Member Since: Juli 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
538. rwdobson
9:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
gosh 27, don't you know that work is the best time to be on WU? i guess if it's a new job you'll need to lay low for a while.
Member Since: Juni 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
537. FloridaScuba
9:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

...IS NOT EXPECTED

that's NOT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
536. ihave27windows
9:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Oh, I can't say HS223.....(whispers...I'll be working for the county)
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535. jake436
9:36 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Skyepony, are you here?
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534. GainesvilleGator
9:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
It doesn't look like we will get a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. 96L may not even develop into a depression. Everybody has my permission to take the night off from Wunderground.com. Enjoy the evening!
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533. Hellsniper223
9:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Your tunnels wont work. They'll cause an atmospheric imbalance and Kill off sealife.
Member Since: Maret 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
532. Patrap
9:36 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
One for saddlegaitLink
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
530. WPBHurricane05
5:34 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
for those who dont believe in the GFDL, well all i can say is watch out for this
Member Since: Juli 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
529. StoryOfTheCane
5:34 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
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528. Hellsniper223
9:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Where are you going to be working 27??
Member Since: Maret 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
527. StoryOfTheCane
5:33 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
id personally be a little worried about this...
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524. WPBHurricane05
5:31 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
i guess we shouldnt expect westcasters since it has to go north to hit the US
Member Since: Juli 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
523. kmanislander
9:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
gone for now
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521. Patrap
9:31 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Casbah..Link
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
519. kmanislander
9:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
plywood

my guess would be a track between WNW then NW. The front in the gulf would produce steering from the SW as the system pulled up to the WNW and would induce a NW to NNW track into the GOM
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517. bibballen
4:26 PM CDT on September 26, 2006
Taz that dang Avilla changes his mind faster than the bloggers.
516. Patrap
9:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
thinkie ill make a drinkie
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
515. rwdobson
9:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
how about some non-disco music...toots and the maytalls "pressure drop"...also covered by the clash.

pressure drop, o pressure
o yeah pressure gonna drop on you
and when it drops
you're gonna feel it...

Member Since: Juni 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
514. Patrap
9:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Tropical waves..Link
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
513. plywoodstatenative
5:22 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
okay, if this does develop into a storm. what track would it take, this is just a question no need to raise any fear.
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511. kmanislander
9:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
well I see that the NHC has confirmed my 8:09 post that nothing is happening in the Caribbean at this time. Another 12 to 24 hrs of deep convection could change that though

BB later
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510. rwdobson
9:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
27, wait, i think i know those guys...they know how to get your pressure dropping.
Member Since: Juni 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
509. Patrap
9:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2006
Tropical wave
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
508. WPBHurricane05
5:25 PM EDT on September 26, 2006
cyclonebuster

ULL are cyclone busters, very rarely do they develop into systems
Member Since: Juli 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
507. ricderr
05:20 PM EDT am 26. September 2006
ok.....i've got to headout....post some mail..grab some dinner...hopefully i'll see you fine people later...until then..let me leave you with this.....

beth i hear you calling...but i can't come home right now....
me and the boys are looking at the blobs
waitinf for the hurricane...
just a few more hours here at the WU and i'll be back home to you...
beth i hear you calling...beth what can i do...beth what can i do
this house seems so empty..that the house just aint a home....
i'm always here at the WU..and you're always watchin tv all alone
just a few more hours..and i'll be back there to you....
beth i hear you calling..oh beth waht can i do...beth what can i do
Member Since: Juni 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.