96L disturbance hanging in there; F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
Well, it sure was great to watch a football game in the New Orleans Superdome last night, and not worry about a hurricane threatening the coast! The hurricane season of 2006 has been exceptionally kind to us by the standards of the past ten years, are there is nothing out there today that causes me any concern. The tropical wave (96L) we've been watching, about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, does has the potential to develop into a tropical depression, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and the system has been able to maintain more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. The storm is in a moist environment, and the ocean beneath is warm. The Canadian model is still the only model that develops the system into a tropical storm, but it appears that wind shear will drop another 5 knots over the next two days, potentially allowing 96L to organize into a tropical depression. Bermuda will need to keep an eye on this system, but I expect it will recurve out to sea before reaching the island.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, it's time to start watching the cloud-covered areas of the ocean surrounding the U.S. where cold fronts stall out. One such area to watch is off the North Carolina Outer Banks on Wednesday, when a tropical low could develop and scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. The more dangerous possibility is in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. A strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. this weekend and stall over the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. The past few runs of the NOGAPS model have been predicting that if this front stalls out over the Western Caribbean, it could serve as a genesis area for a tropical storm. None of the other models are picking up on this, but this is a typical type of development we see in this region in October.
Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 96L.
F4 tornado confirmed in Missouri
The National Weather Service confirmed yesterday that the second violent F4 tornado of the year occurred Friday. The 350 yard-wide tornado ripped through Crosstown, MO, injuring five. F4 tornadoes have winds speeds of 207-260 mph (there have been no F5 tornadoes with winds in excess of 260 mph reported in the U.S. since 1999). The weekend severe weather outbreak was the second largest of the year, with 59 tornadoes (including 40 on September 22). The other F4 tornado of 2006 also affected Missouri, when Monroe City got hit on March 12 as part of the biggest severe weather outbreak of the year--84 tornadoes over a 3-day span.
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
SEVERE STORMS OVER ILLINOIS
it did not storm were i live but there is another chance of severe weather tomorow
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over the western Caribbean Sea. Surface pressure are not falling
and further development is not expected.".....
Pressures are NOT FALLING.
They were lower 24 hours ago.
Back to 70's music.
ok thunder..let's play...first of all....where's this big bad low?....how much spin does it have? and what's the shear?...what's the chances of development?...how long has it been there and will it survive the night?...then..we can freak out....le freak..cest chic...freak out!!!!!
2nd....regardless of how and what i post..how will i influence that blob in any way..oh yeah wait a minute mr POSTman...oh who oh who mr POSTman
Thundercloud01221991,
They have all been here a long time. You have to exist in the environment you are in just like a hurricane does. Dont fight the locals... you will lose. Instead you can post the weather, some will discuss, and some will hang out with friends in the blog. If you get flared up and start developing internal convergence you will get a lot of bad votes in here. You can ask 27 what thats like because since the voting showed up, not a single post of hers has not been auto hidden. Lighten up. The same video people will be covering your butt if a real serious issue shows up and you will discover that they know a lot about the tropics. Peace...
Not too bad...storms are holdin off, of course, until the saddle's vacation weekend of Oct 6 at Ft. Walton
Hey! I live in Ft. Walton! =D
dont forget this blob is over land (low level circulation)
I think if this blob in the western caribbean can persists the NHC may change there tune tommorow.
adrian..i must say...tune...and we're all singing....could there have been a bit of humor in that post?....what....will maybe you join us?.....
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
Back to fun.
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
dang them all to heck........don't they know..that kind of talk..dispels panic.....we need havoc!!!!..havoc rasies gas prices....and some of us....are leveraged on a couple of issues that are gas price driven.....
Back to 70's music.
you heard the man lets go go go!!
seriously, go back and look at the numbers. you'll see the pressure has been rising more than it has been falling. you'll see it's higher now than it was yesterday.
that's me, mr. stabilitu...LOL.
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