U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 PM AST THU MAY 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LOCATED WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL MID LEVEL RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK A BIT TO THE WEST. THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHINESS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE SPELL OF
WEATHER ACROSS THE FA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT WET GROUNDS AND ABOVE NORMAL RIVER
LEVELS IN MANY AREAS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING...WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MORE PREVALENT.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE (ALBEIT MUCH SLOWER THAN
BEFORE) AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT "DRIER" AND MORE STABLE AIR FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MONDAY TOO. ONCE AGAIN HAVE NOT
COMPLETELY BOUGHT THE "DRIER" SCENARIO...BUT FEEL THAT THIS MOST
LIKELY WILL TRANSLATE INTO AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS THICK CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...CAUSING PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK. BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN AND AROUND TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK...
AND TJSJ. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE USVI. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE PR
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 50 30 20 30
STT 76 86 77 86 / 50 40 30 20
TXC019-137-265-385-463-102300-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0033.120510T1949Z-120510T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
249 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BANDERA COUNTY...
EASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY...
WESTERN KERR COUNTY...
REAL COUNTY...
NORTHERN UVALDE COUNTY...
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.
* AT 246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED VERY HEAVY RAINS SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY IN AN AREA GENERALLY BOUNDED BY LINE FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO UTOPIA TO CAMP WOOD TO 10 MILES NORTH OF ROCKSPRINGS.
RAINS WILL MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN
ESTIMATED AND WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LEAKEY...VANDERPOOL...BARKSDALE...CAMP WOOD...CONCAN...GARNER STATE
PARK...KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...LOST MAPLES STATE PARK...
MONTELL...MOUNTAIN HOME...REAGAN WELLS...RIO FRIO...TUFF...UTOPIA
AND VANCE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.
&&
LAT...LON 3029 9931 2962 9944 2949 9942 2948 10007
3029 10025 3030 9998
$$
SOI values for 10 May 2012
Average for last 30 days 3.9
Average for last 90 days -0.2
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 18.9
Monthly average SOI values
April -6.2
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimate outlook/southernoscillationindex/index.php
The daily SOI was at 26 yesterday. It fluctuates rapidly and could easily be back in the negative numbers by this weekend.
* UNTIL 515 PM EDT
* AT 430 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF MISSION BAY... AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
* THE STORM WILL AFFECT... CORAL SPRINGS... MISSION BAY... COCONUT CREEK... LAUDERDALE LAKES... BOCA RATON... HILLSBORO BEACH... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH... LARGE HAIL... DEADLY LIGHTNING... AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
September 2011
May 2012
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE OUT TO 60 NM.
GMZ150-155-102130-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
1246 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012
...TORNADO WATCH 271 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...
.REST OF TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
.TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS SHIFTING WEST EARLY IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
.MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
$$
Lol to say the least. Last September was unbelievable. Ive never seen a drought map look like that. Guess theres a reason last year was the worst drought in Texas History as far as the amount of counties involved.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1103 AM MDT THU MAY 10 2012
...PREPARE FOR KILLING FREEZE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
MTZ001>007-043-110600-
/O.NEW.KMSO.FZ.W.0001.120511T0600Z-120511T1500Z/
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-WEST GLACIER REGION-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
1103 AM MDT THU MAY 10 2012
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
FRIDAY.
* IMPACTS/TIMING: KILLING FREEZE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA VALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TAKE ACTION NOW
TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
* TEMPERATURES: LOW TO MID 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...ALL VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
&&
$$
Thanks In Advance
Go to go. Have to give an exam. REVENGE!!!!!!!!!
Basically a prolonged period of negative SOI's indicate an El Nino is occuring or developing while a prolonged positive period of SOI values indicate a La Nina occuring or developing. We should be expecting a mostly negative SOI in the coming months as El Nino develops. If you looked at a chart from the past couple years you would see a lot of positive values because we had been in a La Nina.
Hope this helps.
I believe that was sarcasm.
Texas is so huge our weather is usually completely different throughout. No, on this we come together! Lol. Never want to see that look like the September map again.
The SOI has climbed back into the positive side of the index, which indicates higher than normal pressures over Tahiti, and lower than normal pressures over Darwin, Australia. This leads to trade winds blowing stronger from east to west in the Equatorial Pacific. In the negative zone, the pressures switch as well as the trades
I could not get your link to work, but I saw the problem and corrected it here - Anti-Wind Propaganda Exposed
Thanks to all who helps answer questions like mine.
The problem is we are so far behind average that we will need quite a bit above average for at least a few months to balance things out.... At this time last year our year to date was near 18 inches, to put it into perspective.
Yes this is a drier time of year but it is still way too dry.
... Flash Flood Watch in effect from Friday morning through
Saturday evening...
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a
* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Louisiana and southeast
Texas... including the following areas... in Louisiana...
Acadia... Allen... Avoyelles... Beauregard... Calcasieu... East
Cameron... Evangeline... Iberia... Jefferson Davis... Lafayette...
lower St. Martin... Rapides... St. Landry... St. Mary... upper St.
Martin... Vermilion... Vernon and West Cameron. In southeast
Texas... Hardin... Jefferson... northern Jasper... northern
Newton... Orange... southern Jasper... southern Newton and Tyler.
* From Friday morning through Saturday evening
* periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible beginning
Friday and continuing through Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible. In
addition... rain rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour can be expected
with the stronger storms.
* Depending on where the heavier rainfall occurs... small streams
and bayous across the area may flood with significant ponding of
water in low spots and poor drainage areas possible. Flooding
could be possible by early next week on some of the larger
rivers due to the expected rainfall.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
You're welcome!
Hopefully, y'all will get some rain out of this potential system that might form in the western Caribbean.
What kind of grass did you have?
Here is the EURO ensemble graphic.
I wonder at what point scientists decide an area has passed drought and simply slipped into a different climate. Anyway, I would live with year-round showers and t-storms if I could ... am truly hoping we're just in a stubborn drought and that it's going to back to a rainier pattern than I've ever seen in my 3 years here!
(Not sure what your local rain tallies are but mine are around 5 inches for the year 2012.)
Orlando!
This gives some overview and details.
We had something like that on our news too. I know something like 70% of the trees in Hermann Park in Houston died last year from the drought. The only way I could imagine them being able to tell the date was from Tree rings but even then, that would have to be difficult to conclude. I just hope I (or anybody)ever has experience anything like that again.
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