Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 03:15 PM GMT on Mei 04, 2012

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Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."


Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.

May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.


Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.

Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".

The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters

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Louisville, Ky. storm has passed. The first woman jockey to ever win the Kentucky Oaks race, Anna Rose "Rosie" Napravnik, rode to victory on Believe You Can.

The Kentucky Oaks race is a race for fillies only. Congratulations Rosie and Believe You Can!
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Quoting Grothar:


Well, Ponce and I were walking through the Everglades, looking for the Fountain of Youth. (I found it, he didn't) He looked at me and said, "One day all of this will be covered with malls and subdivisions"
The first 350 years it stayed pretty much the same, but I would say the last 20 years the climate in Florida has changed drastically. It truly is not the same. All kidding aside on that last sentence.


=) We'll all be searching for the fountain of youth at some point in our lives...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
TRANSLATION: "It was tone deaf, it was offensive, and it was stupid, but we only did it because we're desperate, and scientific reality isn't validating our profit-over-people ideology."


PRECISELY, in my opinion, why scientists - whose principal contribution to society is disinterested interpretation of data - should not get involved in propaganda. Not only does it falsify everything science should stand for, but scientists are rookies at it, without either training or experience. If propaganda is the only thing left for scientists to do - as the leader of the symposium I attended flat-out told me was the case - then we may as well just down tools now.
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Quoting EugeneTillman:



Very blanket statement. Over 400 years of observation, something is bound to change. No?


Well, Ponce and I were walking through the Everglades, looking for the Fountain of Youth. (I found it, he didn't) He looked at me and said, "One day all of this will be covered with malls and subdivisions"
The first 350 years it stayed pretty much the same, but I would say the last 20 years the climate in Florida has changed drastically. It truly is not the same. All kidding aside on that last sentence.
Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27088
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Some?   I'd say the majority of Humanity does this on a constant basis.  Look at our history as a species.  It's everywhere on every level of society.  Nothing but blood and lust of power with no regards but to ones self. IMO humanity will eventually destroy itself one way or another.  Too much evil in this world and too little good to counter it.  I pray I am wrong, but what has humanity ever done to make us believe any different?  No matter how large the rise, its always the minority in the grand scheme of things.


THANK YOU!
Its not the majority of humanity that is the perpetrator of greed and lust as they themselves are the victims of manipulated greed and lust!
The average person in the street has no idea of how to gain control of anything! They only have been led to belive that the products of progress and technology are better for them, as such their world will give them pleasure and contentment? This of course is a folly, as if we apply a version of, the first law of thermodynamics to humanity and call it the first "perverted law of human decadental decline," which we can define as:-
Any society will revert to a background state of social balance, given a sufficient amount of time?
Any temporal anomalies will be negated by the regulatory constraints of the supply of the input of basic society sustaining raw materials at a socially affordable price. Wow!
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Quoting Grothar:


They have. This is not the Florida weather I remember. Nothing is the same.



Very blanket statement. Over 400 years of observation, something is bound to change. No?
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Quoting charlottefl:
Our weather patterns here in FL have dramatically changed over the last 5 years or so. If you don't pay careful attention to the weather it may not seems like it because at first it was subtle. Within the past few years though it's clear something is disrupting those "normal" patterns we're used to seeing.


They have. This is not the Florida weather I remember. Nothing is the same.
Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27088
Quoting Ameister12:
Today is the 5 year anniversary of the EF-5 Greensburg, KS Tornado. The tornado was nearly 2 miles wide and damaged or destroyed nearly 95% of the city.



That was awful. I often watch the TV series Greensburg, where they show how they have rebuilt their town. Some amazing stories.
Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27088
Writing up my Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast and decided to steal CSU's landfall probability predictor.

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY 3-4-5) LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 62% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast - 23% (average for last century is 31%)
3) U.S. Gulf Coast - 42% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Expected near average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean Sea
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
My heart is in the same stance, but my brain tells me different.  



Understandable.
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My heart is in the same stance, but my brain tells me different.  
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Quoting Grothar:


Remember when Griffin Road was a dirt road in Hollywood? I remember when they built the Palmetto and wondered why they would build a highway so far out west. I remember when I95 had a stop light at 135th Street.
The I-95 stoplight is way before my time. I do remember when Sawgrass Mall was being plotted out in the middle of nowhere, and when there were a million people asking why I-75 or the Sawgrass Expressway needed to be built, as "there won't be enough people to fill them up for another 50 years".

Right...
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Some? I'd say the majority of Humanity does this on a constant basis. Look at our history as a species. It's everywhere on every level of society. Nothing but blood and lust of power with no regards but to ones self. IMO humanity will eventually destroy itself one way or another. Too much evil in this world and too little good to counter it. I pray I am wrong, but what has humanity ever done to make us believe any different? No matter how large the rise, its always the minority in the grand scheme of things.



I'm thankful for much around me through my journey thus far. I'm fortunate to know very few people who don't feel the same. Maybe I'm just somehow kinetically attracted to them.

I'm just more of a "half glass full" kinda Guy I guess.
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Quoting EugeneTillman:



That's the sad truth. The extremes some will take to drive forth their mission.
Some?   I'd say the majority of Humanity does this on a constant basis.  Look at our history as a species.  It's everywhere on every level of society.  Nothing but blood and lust of power with no regards but to ones self. IMO humanity will eventually destroy itself one way or another.  Too much evil in this world and too little good to counter it.  I pray I am wrong, but what has humanity ever done to make us believe any different?  No matter how large the rise, its always the minority in the grand scheme of things.

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Evening Everybody!
Thanks be Jeff and to those who wrote the blog heading!
Welcome to the Titanic Syndrome!
This is what we call the syndrome when its obvious whats going on and nobody can do anything about it? IE the Ship has hit the iceberg, or rather the global thermostat/and the controls are broken!
So we know all that is presented in the blog heading but is there anything that can be done?
My personal raving is based on an observation of the "season," 2 years ago when it became obvious that the hurricanes were not bothering the US and were heading in quantity towards Greenland, I got acres of flack for saying this but in my opinion which is worth less than zero, this was significant and with Irene last year it almost got into the US in a big way but failed at the last moment to be the most destructive event of the decade, probably; by a storm surge of 2 foot less than, " Catastrophe?"
I don't want to be a prophet of doom? Its just I was born this way! All I have to say is keep your eyes on the Arctic as this forgotten backwater/icepack is the Achilles heel of the northern hemisphere; ignored, sidestepped, avoided and now potentially to be exploited, for what? More? Hydro carbons to fuel its demise.
One day I might live to be as old as Grother but if I do I will have the continuing flow of the gulf stream and the Russian roulette of droughts and heat waves that have missed me to thank!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I haven't found one, but I'd like to see it. Or Orlando from 1970-current. Or Los Angeles. Or Houston. Or Phoenix...

(When I moved to south Broward in the mid-80s, University Drive was the end of the world; nothing else really existed Out There. And in central Broward, there was a bit of development on either side of SR 84 out to Bonaventure, but civilization ended at Pine Island. My, how things have changed...)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I haven't found one, but I'd like to see it. Or Orlando from 1970-current. Or Los Angeles. Or Houston. Or Phoenix...

(When I moved to south Broward in the mid-80s, University Drive was the end of the world; nothing else really existed Out There. And in central Broward, there was a bit of development on either side of SR 84 out to Bonaventure, but civilization ended at Pine Island. My, how things have changed...)
Ummmm.....yeah, one of Houston would be interesting to see, since I've lived it since Sept of 75.
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Quoting charlottefl:
Our weather patterns here in FL have dramatically changed over the last 5 years or so. If you don't pay careful attention to the weather it may not seems like it because at first it was subtle. Within the past few years though it's clear something is disrupting those "normal" patterns we're used to seeing.



What's normal?
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Quoting Ameister12:
Today is the 5th anniversary of the EF-5 Greensburg, KS Tornado. The tornado was nearly 2 miles wide and damaged or destroyed nearly 95% of the city.


Completely devastating image
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8412
Never has it been more important for humanity to break through our collective denial and address the realities of our destructive habits; and yet doing so can be frightening, overwhelming, and paralyzing.
Link
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Today is the 5 year anniversary of the EF-5 Greensburg, KS Tornado. The tornado was nearly 2 miles wide and damaged or destroyed nearly 95% of the city.

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Our weather patterns here in FL have dramatically changed over the last 5 years or so. If you don't pay careful attention to the weather it may not seems like it because at first it was subtle. Within the past few years though it's clear something is disrupting those "normal" patterns we're used to seeing.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
I remember when the only thing west of the Palmetto Expw. was saw grass and palmettos. No houses from the beginning to the end of the turnpike. And Seminole Indian casino was a real Indian village(441 @ Griffin Rd.)


Remember when Griffin Road was a dirt road in Hollywood? I remember when they built the Palmetto and wondered why they would build a highway so far out west. I remember when I95 had a stop light at 135th Street.
Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27088
Quoting OrchidGrower:
I can't help but think we in South Florida are stuck with dry weather so long as the nonstop rains continue in Puerto Rico, and the MJO pulses keep rocketing out into the Gulf and then dissipating. (It's getting sooo discouraging here....)

Anybody got a current graph handy of the MJO pulses expected for the next week or 10 days? I saw the current water-vapor image for the Americas this morning; lots of moisture over Brazil and the Eastern Caribbean. Just wondering if it is expected to work its way into the Gulf anytime soon.

T.I.A.


Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8412
Quoting sunlinepr:
Rainy day....



These keep popping up.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012

PRC021-047-051-135-137-143-145-050030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0169.120504T2131Z-120505T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA
PR-TOA BAJA PR-
531 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...TOA ALTA
AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 830 PM AST

* LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THEREFORE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THOSE MUNICIPALITIES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6624 1848 6619 1836 6619 1831 6634
1848 6643 1849 6625

$$

FIGUEROA
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I can't help but think we in South Florida are stuck with dry weather so long as the nonstop rains continue in Puerto Rico, and the MJO pulses keep rocketing out into the Gulf and then dissipating. (It's getting sooo discouraging here....)

Anybody got a current graph handy of the MJO pulses expected for the next week or 10 days? I saw the current water-vapor image for the Americas this morning; lots of moisture over Brazil and the Eastern Caribbean. Just wondering if it is expected to work its way into the Gulf anytime soon.

T.I.A.
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Rainy day....

Member Since: Agustus 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Churchill Downs has been evacuated becuase of the threat of severe weather... Several smaller horse races are going on there today so there are a lot of people there.
Member Since: Pebruari 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7996

Scientists Race to Save World's Rice Bowl From Climate Change
More frequent floods and droughts expected in Southeast Asia.
Ocean swells lap into a rice field in Bangladesh.


Swells rise into a rice field in Dhal Char, Bangladesh, making it hard to cultivate. Climate change may make such events more frequent and severe.

Photograph by Peter Essick, National Geographic

Ker Than For National Geographic News

Published May 2, 2012

This story is part of a special National Geographic News series on global water issues.

Climate change is predicted to cause more intense and frequent floods and droughts in Southeast Asia, threatening the world's rice bowl and millions of people who live there unless preventive actions are taken soon, scientists warn.

Link
Member Since: Agustus 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting gordydunnot:
I remember when the only thing west of the Palmetto Expw. was saw grass and palmettos. No houses from the beginning to the end of the turnpike. And Seminole Indian casino was a real Indian village(441 @ Griffin Rd.)


Your just a little south of me. Southern Osceola County right?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Not mine alone; given the widespread outcry over the billboards, I'd say that opinion is shared by tens or hundreds of thousands. And given that Heartland announced a short while ago that they'll be taking down the billboards immediately, I'd say some of those sharing my opinion weren't necessarily supporters of climate change theory.

Regardless of what else is said about them, Heartland's act reeks of desperation. And that's because they're desperate; nature isn't cooperating with their ideology.



That's the sad truth. The extremes some will take to drive forth their mission.
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I remember when the only thing west of the Palmetto Expw. was saw grass and palmettos. No houses from the beginning to the end of the turnpike. And Seminole Indian casino was a real Indian village(441 @ Griffin Rd.)
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Quoting EugeneTillman:



In your opinion?
Not mine alone; given the widespread outcry over the billboards, I'd say that opinion is shared by tens or hundreds of thousands. And given that Heartland announced a short while ago that they'll be taking down the billboards immediately, I'd say some of those sharing my opinion weren't necessarily supporters of climate change theory.

Regardless of what else is said about them, Heartland's act reeks of desperation. And that's because they're desperate; nature isn't cooperating with their ideology.

After causing a nationwide stink,
All those billboards were gone in a blink.
Again Heartland was caught
Doing things without thought;
Seems their "think tank" forget how to "think".
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
be on the alert spencer, ia


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be on the alert spencer, ia
Member Since: Pebruari 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Quoting Neapolitan:
I haven't found one, but I'd like to see it. Or Orlando from 1970-current. Or Los Angeles. Or Houston. Or Phoenix...

(When I moved to south Broward in the mid-80s, University Drive was the end of the world; nothing else really existed Out There. And in central Broward, there was a bit of development on either side of SR 84 out to Bonaventure, but civilization ended at Pine Island. My, how things have changed...)


My grandparents moved here (Orlando) in 1964 and they said Orlando was full of orange groves & swampes. Infact Disney was a swamp before MR. Disney came to town. He also said that everyday it would rain at about 2:30 to 3pm from June thru October and I have yet to set it growing up here.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
TRANSLATION: "It was tone deaf, it was offensive, and it was stupid, but we only did it because we're desperate, and scientific reality isn't validating our profit-over-people ideology."



In your opinion?
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Vacations from Email Decrease Stress, Increase Concentration, Researchers Say

ScienceDaily (May 3, 2012) — Being cut off from work email significantly reduces stress and allows employees to focus far better, according to a new study by UC Irvine and U.S. Army researchers.


Link


Nice post!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Somebody stole my stapler



Vacations from Email Decrease Stress, Increase Concentration, Researchers Say

ScienceDaily (May 3, 2012) — Being cut off from work email significantly reduces stress and allows employees to focus far better, according to a new study by UC Irvine and U.S. Army researchers.


Link
Member Since: Agustus 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting Grothar:


Gives a whole new meaning to the term Urban sprawl. You have one of those for Miami or Fort Lauderdale?
I haven't found one, but I'd like to see it. Or Orlando from 1970-current. Or Los Angeles. Or Houston. Or Phoenix...

(When I moved to south Broward in the mid-80s, University Drive was the end of the world; nothing else really existed Out There. And in central Broward, there was a bit of development on either side of SR 84 out to Bonaventure, but civilization ended at Pine Island. My, how things have changed...)
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Why is it everytime I go on this blog I see a buffed up image (WU Advertisment) of Grother?

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Member Since: Agustus 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lan use changes may seem slow when they're happening, but they actually occur pretty rapidly. Here's 40 years worth of Las Vegas' western suburbs as seen by Landsat:


Quite a massive change over 40 years
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In need of a used radiation protection suit?




Used radiation protection suits pile up last month at a radioactive waste dump at J-village, a soccer training center in Fukushima that has been converted into a command center in the cleanup effort.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Lan use changes may seem slow when they're happening, but they actually occur pretty rapidly. Here's 40 years worth of Las Vegas' western suburbs as seen by Landsat:



Gives a whole new meaning to the term Urban sprawl. You have one of those for Miami or Fort Lauderdale?
Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27088
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The Flash Flood Watch for Puerto Rico has been extended until Saturday evening.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012

PRZ001>007-009-012-013-VIZ001-002-050830-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120505T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... UTUADO...
SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...
ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...
FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
421 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...PONCE AND
VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...VIEQUES AND
WESTERN INTERIOR. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS BROAD TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND aLOCAL REGION WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH...THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY FORCING TO GENERATE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LATE
EVENING HOURS OVER LAND. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO
RICO...THEN DRIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT ANY
TIME ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THIS ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY... THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS... RIVERS AND DRY GUTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING
IN MOST PLACES OVER PUERTO RICO...BUT SOME MAY LINGER A BIT
LONGER AROUND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH AT TIMES...RUNOFF FROM
RECENT RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS UNDER THE WATCH...AND
RIVERS AND STREAM WILL REMAIN AT DANGEROUSLY HIGH LEVELS.
ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION...AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

RAM/JFR/RVT

Now that the rainy season is basically here, I doubt we'll get much of a dry period...unless we have an el nino...it's currently raining here in Kingston, but it's as a result of day time heating...hopefully after Saturday you will have a couple of days to dry out
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8412
Here is some old pictures I found of Pittsburgh.

Pittsburg 1890.




I believe this was a picture of Pittburg around 1925.

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Pittsburg today. For anyone that hasn't been there, it is a beautiful city. It always was, but you really couldn't see it before.

Member Since: Juli 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27088
Quoting angelafritz:
re: the Heartland Institute billboard campaign

From the Washington Post:

4 p.m. update: Heartland Institute President and CEO Joe Bast has issued the following statement:

We will stop running [the billboard] at 4:00 p.m. CST today. (It’s a digital billboard, so a simple phone call is all it takes.)

The Heartland Institute knew this was a risk when deciding to test it, but decided it was a necessary price to make an emotional appeal to people who otherwise aren’t following the climate change debate.
TRANSLATION: "It was tone deaf, it was offensive, and it was stupid, but we only did it because we're desperate, and scientific reality isn't validating our profit-over-people ideology."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Image of Los Angeles before 1900.


Image of Los Angeles today.
Land use changes may seem slow when they're happening, but they actually occur pretty rapidly. Here's 40 years worth of Las Vegas' western suburbs as seen by Landsat:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Katrina wind and storm surge
Link
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8412
The Flash Flood Watch for Puerto Rico has been extended until Saturday afternoon.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012

PRZ001>007-009-012-013-VIZ001-002-050830-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120505T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... UTUADO...
SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...
ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...
FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
421 PM AST FRI MAY 4 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...PONCE AND
VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...VIEQUES AND
WESTERN INTERIOR. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS BROAD TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND LOCAL REGION WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH...THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY FORCING TO GENERATE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LATE
EVENING HOURS OVER LAND. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO
RICO...THEN DRIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT ANY
TIME ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THIS ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY... THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS... RIVERS AND DRY GUTS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING
IN MOST PLACES OVER PUERTO RICO...BUT SOME MAY LINGER A BIT
LONGER AROUND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH AT TIMES...RUNOFF FROM
RECENT RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS UNDER THE WATCH...AND
RIVERS AND STREAM WILL REMAIN AT DANGEROUSLY HIGH LEVELS.
ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION...AND
MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

RAM/JFR/RVT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Update: The storm should be near Churchill Downs at 4:45 pm. Storm crossing the Ohio River now, and more than 150,000 people are seeking shelter at Churchill Downs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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