Ophelia regenerates; Typhoon Nesat heads towards China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:39 AM GMT on September 28, 2011

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Ophelia is back as a tropical depression, thanks to a reduction in wind shear that allowed the storm to re-organize yesterday afternoon just east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, with good spiral banding and rotation. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia's heavy thunderstorms are not increasing, and are limited in areal extent. The low-level center is partially exposed to view, thanks to strong wind shear. No hurricane hunter flights are scheduled for today.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots are slowing down Ophelia's intensification, and will continue to do so through Thursday. By Friday, wind shear is expected to fall to 10 - 15 knots, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia intensifying into a hurricane by Saturday. With the models all agreeing on at track for Ophelia just east of Bermuda, Tropical Storm Warnings will probably be required for the island this weekend. Bermuda will be on the left (weak) side of Ophelia, so will miss the storm's strongest winds and heaviest rains. Ophelia may be a threat to Southeast Newfoundland early next week.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm may dissipate by 4 - 5 days from now.

Typhoon Nesat headed towards China
Typhoon Nesat is headed west towards a landfall on China's Hainan Island on Thursday, and in northern Vietnam just south of Hanoi on Friday. Nesat is a large but disorganized Category 1 storm, and will not have time to strengthen significantly before landfall. However, Nesat is a very wet storm, capable of dropping over a foot of rain in 24 hours, according to latest satellite rainfall forecasts. Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 20 people dead and severe flooding problems.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 06 UTC on Thursday September 29 show the Nesat is expected to dump over a foot of rain (red colors) along where its southern eyewall tracks. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Continued weakening will occur over the next few days, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast. Moisture from Hilary will not reach the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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472. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:


haha funny

well, not too bad, just wish we'd get some storms haha


The US looks pretty tranquil, not much weather anywhere.
But I bet you'll get your storms. XD

Well I'm off to get some sleep, got a class at 10.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Good, good, "enjoying" college.

How about you?


haha funny

well, not too bad, just wish we'd get some storms haha
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470. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:


haha how you been man?!


Good, good, "enjoying" college.

How about you?
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Quoting JLPR2:


I'm not alone! XD


haha how you been man?!
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468. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:


Im gonna go with 55-60mph, but who knows ;)


I'm not alone! XD
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Quoting JLPR2:
I'm probably speaking to myself, but I'll say it.

Ophelia must be a 65-70mph Tropical Storm.


Im gonna go with 55-60mph, but who knows ;)
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466. JLPR2
I'm probably speaking to myself, but I'll say it.

Ophelia must be a 65-70mph Tropical Storm.
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465. JLPR2
More and more interesting.


Although a little turn to the N can be seen at the end of several models. Philippe wants to travel a bit more, not interested in fish yet.
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha thanks!


Done deal.
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha I feel like an idiot, go to my latest blog and comment where it is, then I'll remove it


haha thanks!
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Quoting Seawall:


Email might be down
Just think bunker. Add weather to it, and you might find something.


haha I feel like an idiot, go to my latest blog and comment where it is, then I'll remove it
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Quoting tornadodude:
hmm, havent got it yet, strange


Email might be down
Just think bunker. Add weather to it, and you might find something.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
90% done with September and the beat of 2011 keeps on going...

Decaying fish

Definitely one of the most anemic seasons I have seen.



hey stormchaser, how's it going?
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90% done with September and the beat of 2011 keeps on going...

Decaying fish

Definitely one of the most anemic seasons I have seen.

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hmm, havent got it yet, strange
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Quoting Seawall:


Didn't get your email, but I sent you one. :)

haha oh weird, let me check!
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Quoting Seawall:


They are still around, just in a different place. WU mail me if you would like the location.


done :)
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I miss the old days on here, just not as exciting, and not as informative as it used to be. there used to be some really knowledgeable forecasters on here. great resource
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449 tornadodude "What is everyone's thoughts on Philippe?"

Mine are to not think much about Phillipe until it passes 55degreesWest...
...or until after it consistently breaks the speed limit past 50degreesWest.
Member Since: Agustus 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
17.9n59.7w, 18.2n59.6w, 18.3n59.8w, 18.4n59.9w, 19.0n60.4w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_29Sept__12amGMT_ATCF
18.0n59.4w, 18.1n59.5w, 18.2n59.6w, 18.4n59.8w, 18.8n60.2w, 19.2n60.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 27Sept_6pmGMT and ending 29Sept_12amGMT

The 5 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path over 30hours.
The AXA dot is used to produce a map-scale showing the northern LesserAntilles as reference points.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 5.7mph(9.1k/h) on a heading of 324.5degrees(NW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over NagsHead,NorthCarolina ~10days15hours from now
(Not shown. Displaying the straightline projection would make 3 line-segments indistinct.)

To see the straightline projection, 2 previous straightline projection's endpoints, and other info, copy&paste 33.861n78.52w-60j, 34.899n76.319w-12nc, 18.0n59.4w-18.1n59.5w, 18.1n59.5w-18.2n59.6w, 18.2n59.6w-18.4n59.8w, 18.4n59.8w-18.8n60.2w, 18.8n60.2w-19.2n60.5w, axa, 18.8n60.2w-35.91n75.596w, meo into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 28Sept_6pmGMT
Member Since: Agustus 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
So has everyone learned their lesson for the day?
Never never open an email from a troll, ie a name ya don't recognize.
Member Since: Agustus 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
how is everyone tonight? What is everyone's thoughts on Philippe?
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443 EYEStoSEA "[Atlantic animation]"

At the rate Ophelia's traveling, looks like Phillipe will pass to her north before she passes PuertoRico.
Member Since: Agustus 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting will40:


try hitting refresh after each delete


Gone for a while....
Nothing happens if you hit refresh... Seems like the problem is in the WU blog email...
Admin will have to fix it....
But really, seems like this blog can be halted like Ophelia, for days, if a similar attack like yesterday repeats...


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Quoting MidwestGuy:
What with the Bull crap Mail ????????


Trolls work in mysterious ways, their wonders to behold.
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What with the Bull crap Mail ????????
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Quoting pottery:

And I always thought that BBBE stood for BroilingBakingBoilingEverywhere...

Just goes to show....
Good one!

Seriously I only make light of the subject because to me it seems that all we do is talk and nothing ever gets done.It drives me crazy.

But sorry, I forgot, today IS NOT a Blog BBBE Day. You will need to broil on your island (didn't catch which one) and not ask why until the appropriate day.
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Hello to all :)


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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Weird ! what's that ball under Ophilia? Sure looks to have life of its own!


o is a boy!
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Oh, I remember Pot. They called it The Beach Blanket Bingo Effect (BBBE)

And I always thought that BBBE stood for BroilingBakingBoilingEverywhere...

Just goes to show....
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Quoting pottery:

LOL !!
You think they may be on to something?
Never can tell, with Readers Digest.
Now, if Popular Mechanics said that, it would be Irrefutable Evidence of something or the other!
Oh, I remember Pot. They called it The Beach Blanket Bingo Effect (BBBE)
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439. Skyepony (Mod)
Disappointing Cloudsat news..

9/22/11 12:00 am - CloudSat Status

CloudSat is currently in "Safe Mode" while Ball system engineers run tests to determine how to manage the power loads associated with operating the CPR instrument (with the decreased capacity of the spacecraft battery). The spacecraft and instrument team is hoping to turn the radar on, in test mode, by the end of September and, if all goes well, begin to operate the radar in a daytime-only mode by mid October. CloudSat will only operate during the sunlit portion of the orbit for the duration of the mission. A decision has not yet been made on whether CloudSat will return to the A-Train ... or be allowed to drift toward the terminator (to increase the duration of sunlight on the solar panels and increase the CPR operating window).


Quoting ProgressivePulse:


IKE nearly had most of SFL evacuated. EOC's on max alert and issuing evac plans and hourly updates. Nothing is for certain in the tropics.


My neighbor never took down the shutters from one side of his house he put up before Ike & I'm in ECFL.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Ophelia had a baby. xD
Weird ! what's that ball under Ophilia? Sure looks to have life of its own!
Member Since: Mei 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 970
Quoting JLPR2:


Not yet, we will get south winds soon, so far we are still getting N winds.

once those south winds start, N Puerto Rico will fry. :\

True.
That will jump your max. temps a few notches.

No relief in sight here in the short term either.
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436. JLPR2
Quoting luigi18:


wind blowing from the south for days!


Not yet, we will get south winds soon, so far we are still getting N winds.

Once those south winds start, N Puerto Rico will fry. :\
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I recently read an article in Reader's Digest about this. They said it had something to do with Earth or Globe heating, or warming or oven effect or pavement or hotplate effect or something like that. Interesting article.

LOL !!
You think they may be on to something?
Never can tell, with Readers Digest.
Now, if Popular Mechanics said that, it would be Irrefutable Evidence of something or the other!
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434. Skyepony (Mod)
What Ghostly was referring to happens toward the end of seasons. If the water is near 26 we may see a small shallow storm that seems to mantain where it shouldn't...those weird NE Atlantic storms. CMC isn't looking like this going to happen. Keeps it cold core.
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Quoting JLPR2:


In my area which is Carolina,PR (NNE side of the big island) it reached 91F.

The islands are heating up. xD


wind blowing from the south for days!
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Quoting JLPR2:


I will blame the temps on Ophelia, the usual trade winds are being disrupted, maybe once it moves out of the area and the forecasted ridge that is supposed to move Philippe W/WNW materializes our trade winds will increase.

We need the sea breeze to cool off.

Makes sense.
The last couple months have been pretty dry here because of the storms moving through to the north.
They are dragging all our moisture away to PR !!!

The ITCZ has been very quiet...
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Quoting pottery:
It's 10:50 pm.
It's 82F with 85% humidity.
Today temp peaked at 95F, (35C) equalling the record set in 2004 (for this day).

It's hot here.....
Islands are not supposed to be this hot!
I recently read an article in Reader's Digest about this. They said it had something to do with Earth or Globe heating, or warming or oven effect or pavement or hotplate effect or something like that. Interesting article.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Interesting to hear all de talk about fish for Phillipe...which may still hold true, but now with models pointing west west west in 120 hours i am now thinkin hard lol
Stop talkin' dirty ...
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Quoting reedzone:


Not true, models shows a large ridge taking over the trough pattern. This is a pattern change in the next week or so.


IKE nearly had most of SFL evacuated. EOC's on max alert and issuing evac plans and hourly updates. Nothing is for certain in the tropics.
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428. Skyepony (Mod)
Nalgae
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Quoting Skyepony:
20W NESAT

what about models on the other storm? :)
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426. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

The sea is supoosed to keep us cool!
What;s going on????


LOL, sounds almost as bad as here!


I will blame the temps on Ophelia, the usual trade winds are being disrupted, maybe once it moves out of the area and the forecasted ridge that is supposed to move Philippe W/WNW materializes our trade winds will increase.

We need the sea breeze to cool off.
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425. Skyepony (Mod)
20W NESAT

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Quoting JLPR2:


In my area which is Carolina,PR (NNE side of the big island) it reached 91F.

The islands are heating up. xD

The sea is supoosed to keep us cool!
What;s going on????

Quoting prcane4you:
Move to Puerto Rico.

LOL, sounds almost as bad as here!
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423. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:
It's 10:50 pm.
It's 82F with 85% humidity.
Today temp peaked at 95F, (35C) equalling the record set in 2004 (for this day).

It's hot here.....
Islands are not supposed to be this hot!


In my area which is Carolina,PR (NNE side of the big island) it reached 91F.

The islands are heating up. xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
It's 10:50 pm.
It's 82F with 85% humidity.
Today temp peaked at 95F, (35C) equalling the record set in 2004 (for this day).

It's hot here.....
Islands are not supposed to be this hot!
Move to Puerto Rico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.