Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The rain was strange, hard to explain with the wind. It was like it was pouring but it wasn't. Next thing you know fire trucks are driving by going to put out a fire caused by lightning. It is like it wants to rain but it can't. My sister lives about 8 miles north of me and she received 2 tenths, other family members received about the same amount i did. Central Texas is quickly becoming a desert though. I know the humidity around here has been less than it is in Vegas and Phoenix.

Sounds like a heavy mist

If Philippe does not squeeze thru that little gap....somebody gonna be in trouble with a possible biggn!

If that NOGAPS model would be correct.........reminds me of that "A" name storm........it happened nearly identically the same way.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Exactly. In some areas you could see the heavy rain falling but you could also see it wasn't making it to the ground, typical desert weather. West Texas has shifted eastward the past year that is for sure.

Well, it's supposed to happen again today with all that EPAC moisture streaming in. We'll have to get pics for people who have never seen rain fall yet not hit the ground.

NO EXIT FOR Philippe as it would turn WSW!

Given the extensive surface ridge forecast for the eastern CONUS next week,and the onset of the wet phase of the MJO over the Caribbean, late next week will be the time for Levi's call to pan out - or not. After day -9 the GFS ensemble is indieed indicating sustained troughing over the western Caribbean basin. Link: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertchart s?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=mamk&MODELL=gefs&MO DELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=0&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHI V=0&WMO=

(formatting of the site appears to be buggy this morning so I can't use the "links" tab.

Quoting TampaSpin:


NO EXIT FOR Philippe as it would turn WSW!

Be a friggin miracle if it would go gulf bound...in October

Quoting RitaEvac:


Be a friggin miracle if it would go gulf bound...in October

Maybe but another Trough one would think would be coming tho. Don't know tho!

Quoting redwagon:
Well, it's supposed to happen again today with all that EPAC moisture streaming in. We'll have to get pics for people who have never seen rain fall yet not hit the ground.

It was the strangest thing I saw when I was in Arizona one year. You could see the rain coming down and then just disappear as it is raining. The only thing that made it to the surface was hail.

Quoting TampaSpin:



If Philippe does not squeeze thru that little gap....somebody gonna be in trouble with a possible biggn!

it would be a strange course no doubt

is it just me or did ophelia just split down the middle?

Quoting reedzone:
Something interesting to note is that Ike was lurking around this time 3 years ago.. Phillipe is starting to remind me of Ike in terms of track. This means once it gets caught under that ridge, it may steer it WSW for a bit then west. It can still recurve but the models are starting to show a much more westward trend.

In terms of Phillipe its Highly unlikely with the present overall pattern over the southeast united states. 2 cold fronts progged by models forecasts to move through florida this weekend into early next week. Could see 1-2 sheared tc's in carib but serious conus threat doesn't appear likely in my opinion but as always things in the tropics can change quickly.

Quoting hurricane23:


In terms of Phillipe its Higly unlikely with the present overall pattern over the southeast united states. 2 cold fronts progged by models forecasts to move through florida this weekend into early next week. Could see 1-2 sheared tc's in carib but serious conus threat doesn't appear likely in my opinion but as always things in the tropics can change quickly.

Hey "killer," good to see you.

Ike hit Texas Sept 13th 2008

Quoting RitaEvac:


Be a friggin miracle if it would go gulf bound...in October

Water is still plenty warm to support a storm. 84-85 degrees throughout the gulf still. All it would take is a different upper level pattern and it does not seem too far fetched.

What the possiility of Ophelia and Phillipe being wrapped up in a Fujiwara (sp?) effect spinning Phillipe to the south?

Why is it that people always go against the NHC and their forecasts? they are calling for Philippe to become a remenant low on sunday, but yet people here going totally against that and calling for it to go to the GOM or florida etc, strange.

Quoting hophead:
What the possiility of Ophelia and Phillipe being wrapped up in a Fujiwara (sp?) effect spinning Phillipe to the south?

No chance considering ophelia will be by bermuda come Saturday,

Post #70

Thank you for posting that radar. I'm not sure what the one below it is, but it looks interesting.

TIA

Quoting TampaSpin:
If that NOGAPS model would be correct.........reminds me of that "A" name storm........it happened nearly identically the same way.

SSSHHHH

my mother's name was Ophelia, and my brother-in-law is Phillip. I don't think either are a threat to us. Just a lot of hot air.

Quoting KUEFC:
Why is it that people always go against the NHC and their forecasts? they are calling for Philippe to become a remenant low on sunday, but yet people here going totally against that and calling for it to go to the GOM or florida etc, strange.

Probably because NHC was totally off three days ago for both storms.

Post 79...Umm, Those are 2 different storms.

Quoting scott39:
Post 79...Umm, Those are 2 different storms.

Yes, they are. Both the prediction from three days ago. And I can't remember the NHC being so off three days out. With Phillipe, it is not as bad, but the five day isn't even close and will not happen.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Stormed here for several hours last night and I received half of .01, LOL. The dry lightning around here caused several fires, this is a first for this part of Texas but it was like very heavy virga, lots of lightning and thunder and winds well over 40 mph but the rains were evaporating before they hit the ground even though the radars showed it red over my house. Some scattered areas did get a little rain but for the most part it was just alot of barking and no bite. The humidity was 40 percent when it was raining before the drought my humidity would be 90 to 100 percent when it was raining.

To me last night's storm felt like a Midwest mesoscale. Very windy. As I tried to close my garden gate I felt like "Dorothy in Kansas". A dead tree was completely uprooted near my house. Heavy winds caused the rain to fall "sideways", so it felt heavy, but it wasn't (.1 in)

The irony San Antonio compared to Austin: Over the last several days SA's dewpoints were about 10 degrees higher than Austin's. Usually there is just a few degree's difference.
Monday evening the humidity was oppressive & dewpoints were in the 70's. I could barely drag my garden hose....

Yesterday my duaghter called me to tell me there was a tornado warning in the town where I work. Of course, me being me, I rushed to a big window- I have long wanted to see a tornado. An employee of mine and I watched for a while, as there was high wind, torrential rain, and 1.5 inch hail putting on a show. As we watched, the wind began to change directions, and then to swirl around and pick up hail and water from the parking lot and spin it in circles and then the swirl took off towards the north and east. We joked about seeing our first tornado... until we saw a trained spotter had reported a funnel cloud in the area. I am wondering, do you see that kind of effect from a funnel cloud passing over? I am trying to convince myself I saw a baby tornado pass by 10 feet away, just for the cool value of it :)Tornadoes used to me rare in this area, but have had 5 or 6 warned cells this year. Any info is appreciated.

Quoting post #74 "Why is it that people always go against the NHC and their forecasts? they are calling for Philippe to become a remenant low on sunday, but yet people here going totally against that and calling for it to go to the GOM or florida etc, strange."

Was Ophelia not a Remnant Low? We could be looking at a similar scenario where Philipe weakens and then regenerates.

Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, September 28th, with Video

Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Ophelia is once again a TS:

AL, 16, 2011092812, , BEST, 0, 184N, 599W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 0, 1011, 240, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,

0Yes back to a typical , 2011 storm, wit expose center, winds very far away towards the east of the Storm and lack of convection in the western side. Miss how beautiful she looks when was only a remnants...

Quoting goosegirl1:
Yesterday my duaghter called me to tell me there was a tornado warning in the town where I work. Of course, me being me, I rushed to a big window- I have long wanted to see a tornado. An employee of mine and I watched for a while, as there was high wind, torrential rain, and 1.5 inch hail putting on a show. As we watched, the wind began to change directions, and then to swirl around and pick up hail and water from the parking lot and spin it in circles and then the swirl took off towards the north and east. We joked about seeing our first tornado... until we saw a trained spotter had reported a funnel cloud in the area. I am wondering, do you see that kind of effect from a funnel cloud passing over? I am trying to convince myself I saw a baby tornado pass by 10 feet away, just for the cool value of it :)Tornadoes used to me rare in this area, but have had 5 or 6 warned cells this year. Any info is appreciated.

I've never seen a tornado, but in Wisconsin on a muggy spring afternoon, I was searching the sky because it felt like it was going to rain. The horizon was hazy and had a greenish, brownish look. There was some wind, (guessing 10-20 mph) and it seemed to be blowing in some kind of "dirt"...that appeared to be asphalt.

Then came fiberglass insulation.
So I knew......

I watched the sky, anticipating, but it eventually cleared. Not a drop of rain or anything.

The tornado touched down 15 miles from my home. This was a major tornado. It varied from f3-f5 along it's course.

SubtropicalHi, that's cool but I feel bad for the owner of the fiberglass :( I'm not sure what I saw, but it was so fascinating that I had an ipod in my pocket but forgot to shoot a video...

TS Ophelia looks like TS Lee

hi all looks like our p strom will keep us all guessing for a few days this one is interesting to watch this week

Quoting TampaSpin:
If that NOGAPS model would be correct.........reminds me of that "A" name storm........it happened nearly identically the same way.

That's what I was thinking. Hopefully not.

Love your new avatar. It's very spinny.

Quoting goosegirl1:
SubtropicalHi, that's cool but I feel bad for the owner of the fiberglass :( I'm not sure what I saw, but it was so fascinating that I had an ipod in my pocket but forgot to shoot a video...

Homes were damaged. Luckily it was down to F3 when it hit a suburban area. This was in 1974

An F5 hit Central Texas near Austin in 1997 (Jerrell) Some of our Texas members probably have memories of that.

The Jerrell tornado was a classic F5.

Quoting RitaEvac:


Be a friggin miracle if it would go gulf bound...in October

anyone remember kyle if i remember right it was a late season system as it moved w accross the atlantic

hmmm...isn't it strange how the 5 day forecast for Phillipe has it turning back more west? Should Florida watch this one?

hophead "What's the possibility of Ophelia and Phillipe being wrapped up in a Fujiwhara effect spinning Phillipe to the south?"

No chance whatsoever. In the NorthernHemisphere, a Fujiwhara's mutual spin is counter-clockwise.
So IF such an interaction were to occur, Phillipe would be spun northward.

I know it's really far out, but not a good sign, notice the trough coming down the MS River Valley and the storm in the SW Caribbean is moving NW.

75 KUEFC "No chance considering Ophelia will be by Bermuda come Saturday"

IF you have faith in the models. According to its last 3 ATCF center positions, Ophelia's been travelling at 1.6mph(2.6kph); ie it's been going nowhere very slowly.

I would swear we were in a tropical storm right now has been nonstop rain here since 8:00 a.m. Ligtening show as well.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011



AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SRN LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281710Z - 281915Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
STORMS DEVELOP/INTENSIFY WITH TIME. EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE IS
POSSIBLE.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...BOTH INVOF A SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SERN TX/SRN LA COAST AND ALSO FARTHER N INTO SRN
MS NEAR THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT. THE CONVECTION IS INITIATING
WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING IS YIELDING MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
NOW AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA.

AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...AND AS A COMPACT UPPER
LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTS SEWD OUT OF OK INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
WHILE PROFILER/VWP DATA AND MORNING RAOBS REVEAL MODEST FLOW ALOFT
-- AND THUS SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
THIS LIMITATION AND YIELD AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WW IS NOT
IMMINENT...INCREASING POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 09/28/2011


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29149485 29219573 29819596 30829504 31449374 31599184
31749049 31288888 30638849 29618947 29399067 29639252
29749414 29149485

While waiting for the 6pmATCF... Since the previous mapping for 27Sept_6pmGMT :
17.4n59.9w, 17.5n60.3w, 18.3n59.5w, 18.4n59.7w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_28Sept_12pmGMT_ATCF
17.6n59.2w, 17.9n59.7w, 18.2n59.6w, 18.3n59.7w, 18.4n59.8w are now the most recent positions

Starting with its last unrevised position on 27Sept_6pmGMT and ending 28Sept_12pmGMT

The 5 line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path.
The AXA dot is there to produce a map-scale showing the northern LesserAntilles as reference points.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 1.6mph(2.6k/h) on a heading of 316.3degrees(NW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over SunsetBeach,NorthCarolina in ~5hours less than "40days and 40nights" from now (-; not shown ;-)

Copy&paste 17.3n59.5w-17.6n59.2w, 17.6n59.2w-17.9n59.7w, 17.9n59.7w-18.2n59.6w, 18.2n59.6w-18.3n59.7w, 18.3n59.7w-18.4n59.8w, 60j, 18.3n59.7w-33.861n78.52w into the GreatCircleMapper to see the straightline projection and other info.